At midday today, the 25th, the space in front of the sample cherry tree at Yasukuni Shrine (Kudankita, Chiyoda Ward) was packed with people waiting for first bloom (the two photos at right). Two blossoms are unmistakably open (main photo, taken just after noon on the 25th). The Japan Meteorological Agency declares “first bloom” when five flowers open on the sample tree, so the announcement may come tomorrow — or as early as this evening. Forecast first-bloom dates for central Tokyo were March 25 from Weather Map, March 28 from the Japan Weather Association, and March 27 from Weathernews. Nagoya and Shizuoka were observed in bloom on the 24th, so Tokyo is close.
Full-bloom forecasts: Weather Map March 31, Japan Weather Association April 5, Weathernews April 4. This coming weekend should be good viewing — rain is the only worry.
The JMA stopped issuing blossom forecasts in 2010, saying applied-weather work should be left to private firms. From that year the three private operators — Weathernews, Weather Map and the Japan Weather Association — have provided the forecasts. The JMA still publishes observed first bloom and full bloom as before; only the outlook was handed to the private sector.
That makes the three firms’ accuracy a point of interest. Predicted dates can scatter by location, and organizers of viewing events wonder which to follow. One reason is that “first bloom” is defined differently: some say five or six flowers, others one. The gap between one flower and five or six is said to be a day or two. Observation sites also differ. “The formulas for first-bloom dates differ too,” Weathernews says. Comparing the three, the order of earlier forecasts tends to be (1) Weather Map, (2) Japan Weather Association, (3) Weathernews.
The Chiyoda Ward Tourism Association, which runs the Chiyoda Sakura Festival in which Palaceside Building takes part, used to set event dates by the JMA forecast. It now “compares the three private firms,” but flyers and booklets cannot wait forever. A difficult call.
This year’s Chiyoda Sakura Festival runs Friday, March 28, through Sunday, April 6 — likely right at peak. A free shuttle, the Sakura Festival bus, will loop Kudanshita → Takebashi → Jimbocho → Awajicho → Nihonbashi → Marunouchi, Otemachi → Jimbocho → Kudanshita on Saturday and Sunday, March 29 and 30, from 10:00 to 18:00, about every 15 minutes. A temporary stop, “Takebashi Mainichi Shimbun-mae,” will be set just west of Palaceside Building’s main entrance (behind the taxi stand); riders may board and alight freely. The building is normally closed on Sundays, but it will open specially on the 30th, and 16 shops on B1 and the first floor will also trade.